Despite the reported decline of PC shipment globally, IDC believes that Indonesia will grow slightly in the coming years.
According to IDC WW Smart Connected Devices (PC) tracker, the trend of the PC market is moving towards flat to negative growth in China, India, and ASEAN.
“While the slowdown is a global phenomenon we have to accept as fact, it does not necessarily signal the beginning of the end for the PC market in Indonesia,” noted Wilhendra Akmam, Research Manager at IDC Indonesia.
IDC’s research for the Q1 2013 cycle is still ongoing, but based on forecasts from the previous cycle growth is expected to be mildly positive for the PC market in 2013.
Among the reasons for the mild growth in Indonesia is decreasing number of mini notebooks available in the market. Historically, mini notebooks are a huge part of the Indonesia PC market, and have had a big contribution to the market boom over the past 3-4 years. IDC is observing a continued decrease in the number of mini notebooks available in the market and we have yet to see a viable replacement for it.
The distraction of new devices such as tablets and smartphones available in the market also represents a challenge to growth. This means that more devices are currently competing for the consumer’s wallet share.
Despite the slump in shipment, on a macroeconomic level Indonesia continues to show solid growth, with FDI rising to record levels in Q4 2012, indicating that Indonesia is still an attractive economy. IT spending in Indonesia is also forecasted to reach US$15.8b this year alone.
Another reason is that demographically, from the years 2010 to 2020, Indonesia is in a demographic bonus stage where up to 70 percent of the population is in the productive working age. These are people who are the backbone of the rising middle economy in Indonesia and will continue to purchase PCs in the near future.
Another prominent driver is the under-developed market of eastern Indonesia, which promises huge growth potential if nurtured and approached the right way. Government focus on developing Small Medium Businesses (SMBs) in the eastern regions of Indonesia, coupled with investment in infrastructure, will be the driver of economic growth in future.
Though things do look tough for the coming year, IDC believes that Indonesia still has solid fundamentals and will continue to be a growth market in the future